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Wednesday, 6 May 2020

Corona's wrath will peak in India by end of June

State Bureau, Kolkata: The third phase of lockdown has begun in India, but Corona's numbers are still rising. It has yet to reach the top. 

According to a study conducted by the Indian Association for the Cultivation of Science (IACS) in Kolkata, the corona virus has not reached its peak in the country at the moment, but could reach its peak by the end of June this year. The study also said that the nationwide lockdown has delayed the onset of the epidemic by a month, which has led to better arrangements for dealing with the corona. The study, based on a biocomputational model, said that by the end of June, about 1.5 lakh people in India are likely to be infected with corona. With the help of the reproduction number in this study, it is said that the infection of corona is spreading so fast.

The study found reproduction number 2.2, which means that the infection is spreading from 10 people to 22 people. With proper adherence to lockdown and physical distance, this reproduction number is expected to decrease to 0.7.

Shantanu Bhattacharya, director, IACS, said the study was conducted by Raja Paul and his team at the School of Mathematical Sciences on the Sustainable Infectious-Recovery Death (SIAD) model to assess the status of corona in India. According to this model, if there was no lockdown in the country, the epidemic of corona would have peaked at the end of May. Due to the lockdown, there is a difference of about 15 days. 

The model also said that if the lockdown had been completely lifted on May 3, there could have been a sharp rise in corona infections. The total number of people infected with corona in India was 657 when the lockdown was announced on the night of March 24, while in Germany, when the countrywide lockdown was announced on March 22, the corona affected people. The number was 25,000.



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